The coin releases from The Perth Mint and Royal Australian Mint just in the first period of 2015 are plentiful so the question is this –
Are the mints killing off a very lucrative market by oversupplying?
The releases from both the Pert Mint and Royal Australian Mint around this time include Anzac Centenary and Gallipoli releases, Eternal Love, Cricket, New Year, the Lunar series with many different sizes and types, Coin show special, sunset Batman, Gods of Olympia, Star Trek and more but you get the point.
All things considered and under normal circumstances it would appear the market is defiantly been oversupplied. Although I am not that familiar with International releases the same expansion of releases appears to be occurring with other mints as well.
The immediately effect of this has been a gradual drop in prices for previously released coins. If collectors cannot be guaranteed rising prices for their coins it does spell trouble for the silver commemorative market. It is a relatively new market really only becoming popular in the last decade or so and needs careful consideration and management by the mints.
The question in my mind is what of the future?
Firstly let’s look at the stuff these coins are made of. Silver.
There are lots of predictions about the future price of silver. For the first time in a while the negative and positive sentiment are pretty much balanced with predictions of $8 to over $100 oz. It is very difficult to get a handle on prices but again the two sources I use are Edge Trader and Half Past Human. HPH uses radical predictive linguistics to predict prices but beware it is a site with many radical ideas.
Irrespective we as coin collectors do not have to know what the price of silver will be in 1 week or 1 month or even 1 year. However with so many commemorative releases it would be comforting to know in the medium to long term the price of silver will be a lot higher than now thus underpinning our collection.
There are the reasons that give me confidence that silver prices will be higher in the future
• The current price is below the cost of production for all but the most efficient mines.
• The new electrics and other new industries use and will use a lot of silver, the increase in industrial use will be significant.
• The currency wars currently raging are not going to end well for Fiat money
• The weird battle between deflation and inflation will most likely resolve itself on the side of inflation and it could be quite severe inflation
In fact the mints are experiencing this inflation beginning now with more releases of ½ oz. silver rather than 1oz and the reintroduction of Sterling Silver in some cases.
In summary I am still going to collect the 1 oz. silver commemorative coins. In the future if silver prices really move this may be known as the ‘golden’ age of the 1oz silver commemorative s as silver will be just too expensive to continue releasing silver commemorative coins, in the current volumes.
Silver Spirit Coins have a good selection of silver commemorates.